Is RCP Singh Eknath Shinde in the making?

The lone Union minister from the Janata Dal (United) quota, Ram Chandra Prasad Singh, resigned from the Narendra Modi cabinet on July 6, just a day before his Rajya Sabha term was to expire, yet his party has not sought any ministerial berth. And the party supremo, Nitish Kumar, who is also the chief minister of Bihar, appears to be in no mood to raise any such demand in the near future.

This is in total contrast to his position before the July 7, 2021 cabinet reshuffle made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There was no JD(U) minister since the May 2019 elections.

The Janata Dal (United) had in this interim period of two years repeatedly demanded at least two or three posts in the Union cabinet on the plea that it is the largest constituent of the National Democratic Alliance after the Bharatiya Janata Party. It has 16 Lok Sabha MPs, all from Bihar, against 17 by the BJP from the state. The rest six seats were won by the Lok Janshakti Party of late Ram Vilas Paswan.

The Janata Dal (United)’s argument was that if the LJP can get one ministerial berth when it has only six MPs how can it also have one minister in the cabinet.

But Prime Minister Modi appeared to be in no mood to give more than that and in the cabinet rejig last year he inducted R C P Singh, the then national president of the Janata Dal (United) as the minister. This exercise was a part of the BJP’s strategy to drive a wedge in the JD(U) camp and at the same time show Nitish his actual place. The induction of RCP alone angered Nitish, but he said nothing. He was in no position to take up the issue with Modi and the axe fell on the new Steel minister. He was immediately removed from the post of national president on the plea that the Janata Dal (United) follows the policy of ‘one-man one-post’.

The Bihar chief minister waited for his time and on May 29 last denied Rajya Sabha ticket to RCP, once considered as the blue-eyed boy of Nitish. The former IAS officer of UP cadre who had served as his principal secretary was left high and dry. If his own party had shut the door for him, the BJP has opened a window of opportunity for RCP.

When he landed in Hyderabad on the occasion of the National Executive meeting of the BJP in the city (July 2-3) RCP was warmly welcomed by BJP supporters at the airport. Though he clarified that he was on way to Tirupati rumours started doing the rounds that he was joining the saffron camp. His denial was however taken with a pinch of salt as the timing of his visit to Telangana’s capital was intriguing.

All these developments took place just after the collapse of Uddhav Thackeray’s government in Maharashtra. Speculations are now rife that RCP is Eknath Shinde in the making.

If 56 members strong Shiv Sena legislative party could be split and Uddhav Thackeray overthrown, getting rid of Nitish, who has just 45 MLAs in the House of 243 is no big deal. Unlike in the past there is no one left in the top leadership of the BJP to come to his defence. After all the BJP, which has 77 MLAs in Bihar, has in R C P Singh got a Kurmi from Nitish’s home turf of Nalanda.

A confused Nitish is groping for his next plan of action as by antagonizing R C P Singh he has apparently not gained anything substantial. Nitish may at present be enjoying the support of the new president of the Janata Dal (United) Lallan Singh and the chairman of the party’s parliamentary board, Upendra Kushwaha, but the fact remains that he is in
no position to get accommodated anyone in the Union cabinet.

It needs to be reminded that Nitish has in the past got rid of his mentor George Fernandes, Sharad Yadav and RCP Singh from the party’s chief post. So nothing can be said about Lallan Singh who is definitely a smaller player.

Nitish is just fighting for survival and trying his best to keep his flock together. He had recently thrown some leaders out of the party, who were considered close to RCP.

Bihar is very significant for the BJP in the next general election, perhaps in some way more than neighbouring Uttar Pradesh. It is the state where the NDA won 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 parliamentary poll. The Congress party won just one while RJD none.

There is no dearth of political observers who are of the view that if the saffron party really wants to do well in the 2024 election it will have to re-enact the Maharashtra type drama at the earliest. But the truth is that nothing can be predicted either in Maharashtra or Bihar as of now.

Nitish, on his part, is keeping his door open for the RJD, which has 80 legislators and thus the biggest party in the Assembly. But the question is will RJD accept the offer and on what condition. At present Nitish is not in a position to give much.

The problem with RCP Singh is that he has hardly any following of his own. Unlike Eknath Shinde he is a former bureaucrat and lacks the quality of the Maharashtra leader. Besides, there is no Devendra Fadnavis type figure left in Bihar BJP. The former deputy CM, Sushil Kumar Modi may not play any such role as he is still paying the price for being too close to Nitish. – INDIA NEWS STREAM