92 pc monsoon forecast, 35 pc deficit risk cloud FY27 farm outlook

New Delhi: India’s agricultural outlook for FY27 likely to remain uneven despite underlying stability, with a 92 per cent monsoon forecast and a 35 per cent probability of deficient rainfall emerging as key risks, though strong government support is expected to provide some cushion, a report said on Wednesday.

According to a report by smallcase, while aggregate farm output remains supported by strong production of staple crops, underlying stress points persist due to weakness in pulses and oilseeds, rising input costs and global uncertainties.

However, government-backed welfare schemes such as PM-KISAN disbursements of over Rs 4.09 lakh crore and agri credit growth of Rs 28.69 lakh crore, along with reservoir levels at 127 per cent of the 10-year average expected to provide a cushion, it said.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected the 2026 southwest monsoon at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with possible El Nino conditions, raising concerns over kharif sowing, particularly for pulses and oilseeds.

“The current agricultural cycle is not a broad-based recovery story, but it is a selective and highly conditional one,” said Robin Arya, smallcase manager and Founder at GoalFi.

“For investors and industry stakeholders, this is a year that demands precision, understanding regional income trends, policy responses, and supply dynamics will be far more important than relying on aggregate production data,” he said.

While wheat and rice production are higher, ensuring food security and limiting inflation risks, total foodgrain output has declined 2.2 per cent year-on-year due to lower pulses and oilseeds production.

Buffer stocks remain above norms, offering policy flexibility, the report said.

Meanwhile, sugarcane output has risen around 10 per cent year-on-year, supporting the sugar and ethanol ecosystem, though gains are uneven and largely limited to mills with integrated ethanol capacity.

In contrast, pulses and oilseeds continue to face pressure, with mandi prices in several regions trading below Minimum Support Price (MSP), signalling income stress and weighing on rural consumption.

Sectorally, the outlook remains mixed, with agrochemicals dependent on monsoon, tractor sales likely to normalise, and rural FMCG demand uneven.

Mustard arrivals have also declined sharply, which indicates farmers holding back supply in anticipation of better prices.

According to the report, FY27 is expected to be marked by divergence and selectivity rather than uniform growth. While parts of the agricultural sector remain supported by strong fundamentals, challenges persist in several segments.

IANS