US shift to Gulf may hit Indo-Pacific

Washington: The ongoing conflict in the Gulf could weaken America’s strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific, raising concerns for partners like India as military resources and attention shift away from Asia, senior former US officials warned.

The official said the crisis is already beginning to affect US planning in other regions, particularly Asia, where Washington has sought to build deterrence against China.

“This will impact our plans in other parts of the world, in particular in Asia,” a second former US government official said, pointing to growing strain on US military resources.

The official noted that significant capabilities, including air defence systems, have already been redirected to the Gulf.

“We have almost all of our air defense systems in the region right now, and many of them came out of Asia,” the official said, adding that the US has been “using a lot of firepower on this… only a month in.”

The comments highlight a key concern among Asian capitals, including New Delhi, that a prolonged Middle East conflict could dilute the US focus on the Indo-Pacific.

A senior former US official said such shifts tend to have lasting effects.

“Force posture decisions tend to be very sticky,” the official said, warning that even if major operations end, deployments are likely to continue for an extended period.

“You’re looking at probably a pretty extended period of containment… and that’s going to require US forces in the region for quite some time,” the official added.

The official drew parallels with earlier deployments, noting that forces moved during past crises have often remained in place long after initial operations concluded.

“There will be global trade-offs over time,” the second official said, warning that sustained operations could affect US readiness in other theatres.

“Money is not going to solve a time and physics problem for the American military,” the official added.

Beyond military resources, the crisis is also consuming the attention of senior US leadership, which analysts say could further slow strategic initiatives in Asia.

“The time and attention of senior leaders are just elsewhere right now,” the first official said, noting that the Middle East has historically drawn focus away from other regions.

For India and other Indo-Pacific partners, this raises questions about the consistency of US strategic engagement, particularly at a time when regional competition is intensifying.

The official said that even before the current crisis, Asian allies were dealing with unresolved trade and economic issues with Washington, adding to the strain.

“Almost every bilateral relationship between the United States and countries of Asia… there are actually substantial issues that are as yet unresolved,” the official said.

At the same time, the Gulf conflict could create new demands on US allies and partners.

“I think almost all Asian countries… are anticipating being asked in some way to support issues associated with US continuing involvement in the Gulf,” the official said.

However, such support may be difficult to secure.

“The war… is deeply unpopular, not just in Europe, but across most of the polities of Asia,” the official said, pointing to domestic political constraints facing governments in the region.

The Indo-Pacific has been the centrepiece of US strategic planning in recent years, particularly in response to China’s rise. For India, which has deepened defence and security cooperation with Washington, sustained US engagement in the region remains a key pillar of its strategic calculus.

But repeated crises in the Middle East have historically pulled US resources and focus away from Asia. A prolonged conflict in the Gulf could once again test the balance between America’s global commitments and its Indo-Pacific priorities, with direct implications for partners like India.

IANS