US foreign aid cuts can lead to over 14 mn preventable deaths globally by 2030: Lancet

New Delhi: The dismantling of US foreign aid, imposed by the Donald Trump government, can lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including over 4.5 million children under five, warned a study published in The Lancet on Tuesday.

The study estimates that the developmental programmes supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) prevented 91 million deaths between 2001 and 2021 in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Of these approximately 30 million were among children.

The programmes by USAID — the largest funding agency for humanitarian and development aid worldwide — were also associated with a 15 per cent reduction in all-cause mortality and a 32 per cent reduction in mortality among children under five.

However, the recent US aid cuts could now put that progress at risk, noted the global study.

It comes as President Trump’s administration cancelled 83 per cent of all programmes at USAID, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in March.

“Our projections indicate that these cuts could lead to a sharp increase in preventable deaths, particularly in the most fragile countries. They risk abruptly halting — and even reversing — two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations. For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” said Davide Rasella, ICREA Research Professor at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) in Spain.

The study is based on an analysis of data from 133 countries on: a retrospective evaluation covering the years 2001 to 2021, and forecasting models projecting impacts through 2030.

The results showed that in countries receiving high levels of support, the strongest impact was seen in priority disease areas: mortality from HIV/AIDS was reduced by 74 per cent, malaria by 53 per cent, and neglected tropical diseases by 51 per cent, compared to countries with low or no USAID funding.

Significant reductions were also observed in deaths caused by tuberculosis, nutritional deficiencies, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, and maternal and perinatal conditions.

If the cuts continue, more than 14 million additional deaths could occur by 2030, including about 700,000 extra child deaths per year, the researchers said.

IANS