RBI pegs India’s CPI inflation at 3.1 pc for FY26 amid strong monsoon, healthy kharif sowing

Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday pegged India’s CPI inflation at 3.1 per cent for FY2025-26, as the steady progress of the monsoon and robust kharif sowing are expected to keep food prices in check.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, “The inflation outlook for 2025-26 has become more benign than expected in June. Large favourable base effects combined with steady progress of the southwest monsoon, healthy kharif sowing, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable buffer stocks of foodgrains have contributed to this moderation.”

CPI inflation, however, is likely to edge up above 4 per cent by Q4 2025-26 and beyond, as unfavourable base effects, and demand side factors from policy actions come into play. Barring any major negative shock to input prices, core inflation is likely to remain moderately above 4 per cent during the year, he explained.

However. weather-related shocks pose risks to inflation outlook. Considering all these factors, CPI inflation for 2025-26 is now projected at 3.1 per cent with Q2 at 2.1 per cent; Q3 at 3.1 per cent; and Q4 at 4.4 per cent. CPI inflation for Q1 2026-27 is projected at 4.9 per cent . The risks are evenly balanced, Malhotra added.

CPI headline inflation declined for the eighth consecutive month to a 77-month low of 2.1 per cent (YoY) in June 2025. This was driven primarily by a sharp decline in food inflation led by improved agricultural activity and various supply side measures. Food inflation recorded its first negative print since February 2019 at (-) 0.2 per cent in June.

The RBI Governor also said that high-frequency price indicators signal a continuation of the lower price momentum in food prices this year to July as well. Core inflation, which remained within a narrow range of 4.1-4.2 per cent during February-May, increased to 4.4 per cent in June, driven partly by a continued increase in gold prices.

IANS