India’s GDP to grow at 6.2 pc despite tariff woes: IMF

New Delhi: Citing trade tensions and uncertainties oozing from ‘Trump-tariff’, International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed down growth forecast for global economy by 0.5 per cent for this year to 2.8 per cent, though it expects India’s GDP growth to remain above 6 per cent, despite all the odds.

The IMF released the April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report in Washington on Tuesday.

The report said that shortly after the January 2025 WEO Update, the US announced multiple waves of tariffs on major trading partners and critical sectors.

“For this reason, we expect that the sharp increase on April 2 in both tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a significant slowdown in global growth in the near term,” the report said, while projecting global growth to drop to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026 – down from 3.3 percent for both years in its January update.

The outlook report pegs the Indian economy to grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025 and 6.3 per cent in 2026.

In January 2025, before the tariff came into the picture, the IMF had predicted 6.5 per cent growth for both years.

“For India, the growth outlook is relatively more stable at 6.2 per cent in 2025, supported by private consumption, particularly in rural areas,” said the report.

While for China, the growth projection has been slashed to 4.0 per cent for 2025 and 4.6 per cent for next year, the US is expected to be more affected with 1.8 per cent GDP growth forecast this year, followed by 1.7 per cent in 2026.

Reserve Bank of India, in its bi-monthly policy statement earlier this month, projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for FY26, down by 20 basis points primarily due to global ‘uncertainties’ arising out of increased tariffs imposed by the US.

IMF has also projected a mere 1.7 per cent growth in global trade, down 1.5 per cent from its January 2025 forecast.

“This forecast reflects increased tariff restrictions affecting trade flows and, to a lesser extent, the waning effects of cyclical factors that have underpinned the recent rise in goods trade.”

IANS