India braces for El Nino as experts warn of possible ‘super’ episode

New Delhi: India is preparing for the impact of El Nino this year, with scientists warning that the current event could strengthen into a very strong or “super” episode, likely to peak between late 2026 and early 2027. Its immediate impact on India is expected to be a higher risk of below-normal monsoon rainfall during July-September, increased stress in central and western rain-fed regions, and pressure on hydropower generation and electricity grids.

Experts define El Nino as a climatic phenomenon characterised by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, disrupting global weather patterns. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for five consecutive overlapping three-month seasons, accompanied by a weakening of the easterly trade winds and shifts in tropical rainfall patterns.

A “super” El Nino refers to an exceptionally strong event, typically when sea surface temperature anomalies exceed 2 degrees Celsius in the reference Nino region. Such events are rare and have widespread global impacts. Scientists have warned that the 2026 event could rank among the strongest on record.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across the country this month, at less than 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA of rainfall across the country during July, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 280.4 mm.

Regionally, below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of northwest and northeast India, east-central India and the eastern peninsular region, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.

Meanwhile, maximum temperatures this month are expected to remain above normal across most parts of India, except a few isolated areas. Minimum temperatures are also likely to remain above normal across most regions, barring some isolated pockets of central and northeast India.

According to a recent report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s power sector could face a greater impact from El Nino than any other country. The report warned that rising temperatures and weaker monsoon rainfall could place unprecedented stress on the country’s electricity system.

A high-level review meeting on Tuesday, chaired by Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister P.K. Mishra, assessed preparedness for the kharif season and the possible impact of El Nino on other sectors of the economy.

He said the overall El Nino situation should be monitored continuously and the impact of a weak or delayed monsoon on vulnerable districts assessed in coordination with states so that timely remedial measures can be taken.

July remains the critical month for kharif sowing and reservoir recharge, with rain-fed regions facing heightened risk. States such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, parts of Gujarat and adjoining Deccan districts are under close watch. Similar attention is also being given to Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, West Bengal and Odisha.

Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Wednesday said the government is closely tracking the potential impact of El Nino and has put in place an extensive monitoring mechanism. He expressed confidence that rainfall would strengthen further during July, accelerating kharif sowing.

He added that after recording a 33 per cent rainfall deficit in June, the overall deficit has narrowed to 24 per cent in July.

Several parts of the country have received good rainfall in recent days, reducing the number of rainfall-deficient districts from 262 to 178.

In conditions of reduced rainfall and weaker winds, hydropower and wind power generation decline while higher temperatures increase electricity demand for cooling.

Chouhan stressed that contingency plans should be activated at the district level after taking into account local conditions, water availability, crop patterns, seed stocks, sowing progress, rainfall intervals and other district-specific risks.

Late last month, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) began issuing specialised El Nino bulletins highlighting the likely impact on maritime sectors.

According to INCOIS, the El Nino event is expected to peak during the winter season between November 2026 and January 2027. As a result, sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are expected to remain above normal until April-May 2027.

The marine ecosystem in the northern Indian Ocean, including both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, is likely to face thermal stress during the coming months, particularly between March and May 2027.

This could lead to increased coral bleaching, more frequent marine heatwaves, and reduced catches of species such as sardine and mackerel because of fish migration or lower recruitment.

INCOIS also warned that the Bay of Bengal is likely to remain rough during the monsoon season, with an increased risk of coastal erosion and flooding along India’s east coast.

IANS