IMD forecasts wetter September, little respite from nature’s fury

New Delhi: As several parts of the country continue to face floods, landslides and cloudbursts, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Sunday released its monthly report forecasting a wetter September with above normal rainfall.

The IMD’s Monthly Outlook for Rainfall and Temperature said the monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole in September 2025 is most likely to be above normal (greater than 109 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during September, based on data from 1971-2020, is about 167.9 mm, it said.

“Geographically, most parts of the country are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, some parts of northeast and east India, many areas of extreme south peninsular India and some parts of northernmost India, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall,” the IMD report said.

Above-normal rainfall can significantly benefit agriculture and water resources, but also brings potential risks such as flooding, landslides, surface transport disruptions, public health challenges, and ecosystem damage, it said.

To manage these risks effectively, it is essential to reinforce infrastructure, utilise IMD’s early warnings, enhance surveillance and conservation efforts, and establish robust response systems in vulnerable sectors, it said.

Since 2021, the IMD has been issuing monthly and seasonal forecasts for the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country based on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system.

The MME approach uses the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centres, including the IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model.

The IMD had issued the first stage forecast for the 2025 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country on April 15 and an update for the forecast on May 27.

In addition, the IMD also issued the forecast for rainfall during June on May 27 and during July on June 30.

The Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Forecast for the Seasonal Rainfall during August-September, 2025 and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for August 2025 was issued on July 31.

In its forecast for surface air temperature over the country during September, the IMD said that monthly average maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal in many regions of west-central, northwest and south India.

It is likely to be above normal over many parts of east-central, east and northeast India and some parts of northwest India and the western coastal region, it said.

IANS