China’s aggressive dam-building programme adding to disaster woes in South Asian region: Reports

New Delhi: Widespread death and destruction were reported from Nepal on Wednesday as flash floods in the Bhote Koshi river, originating from Tibet, inundated many areas in districts north of capital Kathmandu.

Reports suggest torrents of water from Tibet surging into Nepal, sweeping away bridges, damaging hydropower plants, and inundating villages.

In India, the Kosi River, long known as the “Sorrow of Bihar”, is swelling dangerously, threatening millions of lives and livelihoods.

Similarly, the mighty Brahmaputra River, known as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet, once again overflowed the banks this monsoon, killing at least 50 and displacing some seven lakh people in Assam.

Studies suggest that China’s aggressive dam-building programme in Tibet and downstream regions is creating a dangerous mix of ecological fragility, geopolitical tension, and human vulnerability.

It has already built several large dams in Tibet, including the Zangmu Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo, completed in 2015, and the Jiexu and Jiacha dams, which followed soon after.

These dams are part of a broader hydropower push to harness rivers for energy security.

More controversially, Beijing has announced plans for a super dam at Medog County, near the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo, where the river makes a dramatic U-turn before entering India.

However, much of the details of this mega dam project is still under wraps.

What is known is that it could generate three times the power of the Three Gorges Dam, but its scale raises serious concerns about seismic safety and flood management.

Planned to be the world’s largest hydropower project, with a proposed capacity of 60,000 MW, the Medog (Motuo) Dam is estimated to cost some 1 trillion Yen, or around $148 billion.

The Medog Dam has been studied extensively by international think-tanks, research centres, and Chinese scientists themselves.

These studies reveal a project that is as much about geopolitics and frontier consolidation as it is about energy security, and one whose risks may outweigh promised benefits.

The Medog Dam would dwarf the Three Gorges Dam located on the Yangtze river in Hubei Province, which is now the world’s largest hydroelectric power station by installed capacity, producing more than 22,500 MW.

Completed in 2012 after nearly two decades of construction, it spans more than 2 km and rises 185 metres high.

While it stands as a symbol of China’s engineering ambition, the project remains controversial for the social and environmental costs it has allegedly imposed.

But the Medog Dam additionally sits in one of the world’s most seismically active zones.

The risks are not confined to Tibet; sudden releases or failures could devastate downstream regions in India and Bangladesh, while altered sediment flows threaten agriculture and ecosystems across the Gangetic plains.

‘The Medog Imperative’, a 2026 report from the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), a Stockholm-based non-profit research and policy organisation, warned of its seismic volatility.

“Recall the January 2025 earthquake on the Tibetan Plateau that caused massive damage to human life, ecology, and security. Combined with the political sensitivities surrounding Tibet and China’s upper-riparian status, the project raises a series of questions that cannot remain outside the purview of global climate governance, especially the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),” it warned.

The report claimed that hydrologists, environmental researchers, and geologists have expressed unease regarding the project’s feasibility and safety, adding that this region sits along the collision boundary of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates.

The Yarlung Tsangpo river flows from Tibet into India as the Brahmaputra and into Bangladesh as the Jamuna, raising concerns in these countries about water security, stressed a New York Times report last year.

“The Tibetan plateau was formed by a collision between the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates millions of years ago. To this day, the Indian plate is still slowly moving toward the Eurasian one, which is why the Himalayas are regularly hit by earthquakes,” it noted.

Warning that “Such seismic events threaten the safety of dams”, it echoed the ISDP report, claiming that Chinese officials said that cracks appeared on five hydropower dams in Tibet after a magnitude 7.1-earthquake struck near the city of Shigatse early 2025, killing more than 120 people.

“Even if the Motuo dam is built well enough to withstand an earthquake, the landslides and mudflows resulting from quakes are difficult to contain and can kill people living nearby. Experts say the massive excavation involved in dam construction could make such disasters more likely,” it said.

Separate reports, quoting Chinese hydrology and geology journals, such as Shuili Xuebao (Journal of Hydraulic Engineering) and Dizhi Kexue (Geological Science), examining the engineering feasibility of the Medog project highlighted challenges of tunneling through permafrost, managing unstable sediment, and mitigating seismic risks.

A study by researchers at the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR) assessed the potential for reservoir-induced seismicity, also reportedly noted that the Medog site lies at the collision boundary of the Indian and Eurasian plates.

Amid global changes, such man-made structures are adding to concerns.

Some experts suggest a shift toward climate-resilient water management, with smaller, adaptive projects, robust early-warning systems, and transparent data sharing.

IANS