Bangladesh election campaign ends, opinion polls indicate tough BNP-Jamaat contest

Dhaka: As the curtain came down on Bangladesh’s election campaign on Tuesday, political parties concluded weeks of intense electioneering ahead of February 12 national elections, local media reported.

In the closing hours, leaders made several promises and pledges, leaving voters to assess them before the polls slated for Thursday.

The campaigning restrictions came into force on Tuesday morning under the Parliamentary Election Code of Conduct for Political Parties and Candidates’ Rules, 2025.

As per the code of conduct, political parties, candidates, or individuals must conclude electioneering 48 hours before the voting begins, Bangladesh’s leading daily, The Dhaka Tribune, reported.

The political parties and candidates began their election campaigning on January 22, following the allocation of election symbols a day before.

Meanwhile, a series of pre-election opinion polls released by various organisations in Bangladesh has produced sharply contrasting projections, raising concerns about their methodology, credibility and the potential impact on voter perception.

Three major surveys published in the last two days projected different pictures of the electoral landscape, particularly in terms of the relative strength of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led alliance and the radical Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami-led bloc, The Dhaka Tribune reported.

A survey released by Dhaka-based Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) claimed to have interviewed 41,500 respondents across all 300 constituencies using the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) method.

While presenting the findings at the Krishibid Institution in Dhaka on Monday, EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Haider Talukder said the BNP-led alliance is projected to win around 208 seats, whereas the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance may secure 46 seats in the upcoming polls.

In contrast, a survey conducted by Bangladesh’s International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) predicted a tight contest, with the Jamaat-led alliance expected to win 105 seats and the BNP-led bloc 101 seats.

Adding to the divergent projections, a third survey, released by the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC) — a platform of former Dhaka University students — predicts a BNP landslide with 77 per cent of the popular vote and 220 parliamentary seats.

While surveys remain a prominent feature of election-season discussions, analysts warn that conflicting projections may influence expectations rather than accurately predict electoral outcomes, especially amid heightened political tensions.

IANS