Bangladesh close to installing new government, but process will remain in contention

New Delhi: Even as the last ballots are being accounted for in a mandate that seems sweeping the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) towards an overwhelming victory, the country’s 13th national election will remain among its most consequential, and contentious.

As the results started reflecting the trend late on Thursday night, the refrain – from on-ground reports in Dhaka to its High Commission in New Delhi – was that the outcome was going along “expected lines”.

Opinion polls had indeed predicted an edge for the BNP-led alliance over the other, headed by Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, as the trend confirmed ahead of the clock striking midnight.

However, even before the first rays of the Friday Sun could touch Dhaka, the winning “edge” turned into a chasm, robbing the Jamaat of a much-speculated last-moment magic.

The Jamaat had done considerably well in university elections that preceded the general poll. Considering that around five crore youth comprised Bangladesh’s total electorate of close to 12.8 crore, there was a mixed feeling over the final outcome.

Now, an overwhelming mandate may rule out the coming together of the political allies-turned-adversaries, an opinion held among many in the interim administration in Bangladesh.

According to sources, there is still an attempt on in Dhaka to bring the BNP and Jamaat together on the grounds that it will reflect “unity” among political leaders to the domestic and global audience, despite the charged-up campaign trail.

While a detailed analysis of final poll results will establish the fact whether the “floating voters” in this election – Awami League supporters, including minority electors – have now imposed their faith in the BNP, the initial count indicates that way.

Among their voter-base, both BNP and the Jamaat overlap the other’s support group that is largely based on nationalism and conservative voters, making them contenders.

The time now is unlike that when they chose to rule in coalition and some Jamaat leaders joined as ministers a Cabinet led by former Prime Minister late Khalida Zia.

Both parties are strongly opposed to the Awami League, which is out of contention after being banned from all political activities and its leader, Sheikh Hasina, in exile.

Moreover, past bans, war‑crimes legacy, and stigma over the Jamaat’s alleged links and support to Pakistan during Bangladesh’s 1971 Liberation War and thus, the public image, remain a constraint.

Also, BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman appears now to project himself as a leader who wishes to keep everyone together, much of which is being attributed to his exposure to Western culture during his 17-year UK exile.

Meanwhile, the election process itself has brought about a sharp reaction from former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, deposed in August 2024 during the student-led uprising. She sought annulment of the election in a Facebook post, pointing to the low turnout – claimed at 14.96 per cent by 11 am, or three-and-a-half hours after voting began, considered “the peak voting period” – widespread violence, and an abnormal spike in the numbers of voters in Dhaka.

Though not directed at her allegations, another post on Friday morning from Shafiqul Alam, Press Secretary to Muhammad Yunus, the chief adviser of the interim government of Bangladesh, reported a media outlet as quoting Election Commission officials that the turnout was 60.69 per cent.

“That is a significant and healthy turnout. In Bangladesh, any figure exceeding 70 per cent often invites skepticism. The turnout in the landmark 1991 general election was 55 per cent. By that standard, the 87 per cent turnout recorded in the 2008 election — widely believed to have been orchestrated and influenced by DGFI — appears highly questionable and statistically implausible,” he opined.

IANS