Australian heatwave five times more likely due to climate change: Study

Melbourne: Climate change made early January’s southeastern Australia heatwave five times more likely, scientists say, as the country braces for another 50 degrees Celsius scorcher on Saturday.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued heatwave warnings for Australia’s every mainland state and territory, while the state of Victoria has declared a total fire ban amid extreme conditions. In the state capital Melbourne, extreme heat had forced Australian Open tennis tournament officials to suspend play on all courts and close the roof on the stadium courts.

An analysis on the Australian Science Media Centre website said on Friday that heat at the level of Australia’s recent heatwave, once expected four times per century, is now likely every five years and could occur biennially without stronger emissions cuts.

The analysis by World Weather Attribution, an international scientific group that studies climate change’s role in extreme weather, found that the heatwave happened against the backdrop of a weak La Nina, typically linked with cooler conditions, with the impact of fossil fuel emissions on temperatures far outweighing these natural cooling signals in the climate, Xinhua news agency reported.

Southeastern Australia sweltered through its hottest temperatures since the 2019-2020 ‘Black Summer’, with maximums widely exceeding 40 degrees Celsius between January 7-9, 2026, when Melbourne airport reached 44.4 degrees Celsius, driving a 25 per cent surge in a local hospital’s emergency admissions, the article said.

Carbon emissions made the heatwave hotter, adding 1.6 degrees Celsius to the temperatures recorded, the findings said, adding the heat was followed by devastating bushfires in Victoria, leading to a state of disaster being declared.

“This isn’t just a minor shift in the statistics; it is a total transformation of the Australian summer,” said contributing author, Professor Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick at the Australian National University.

“What we once considered an extraordinary heat event is now something a primary-school student today will likely experience several times before they finish high school,” she said, warning that such 1-in-25-year events are becoming routine, closing the window for adaptation as climate realities unfold today.

However, the findings showed that solar power met 60 percent of peak power demand during the heat, helping maintain grid stability that in previous years depended heavily on fossil fuels.

IANS