Split in Bihar AIMIM not a surprising development

It was bound to happen. Ever since the Assembly election result of Bihar was announced on November 10,
2020 speculation was rife that the Hyderabad-based Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen may face serious
crisis as most of the newly-elected MLAs—barring its state president Akhtar-ul-Iman– have nothing to
do with the party or its policy. They were in AIMIM just because they were denied ticket (or they
feared so) from the party to which they earlier belonged.
They were not political greenhorns and had their own personal clout. Thus their victory was not just
the win of AIMIM.
Take the case of Shahnawaz Alam, son of former Union minister and RJD heavyweight of Seemanchal, (now
late) Mohammad Taslimuddin. He was the RJD MLA till a day before the filing of nomination papers. But
his brother and former MP, Sarfaraz Alam, prevailed on the RJD leadership and got the ticket of the
party from Jokihat. Shahnawaz switched over to the AIMIM at the eleventh hour, and immediately got
ticket. He thus defeated his own brother. The AIMIM had little to do with this victory. Now the same
Shahnawaz was instrumental in breaking the AIMIM and bringing three other legislators to the RJD fold.

The fact is that Akhtar-ul-Iman is the only leader who has commitment to the AIMIM ever since he joined
the party on the eve of 2015 Assembly poll in Bihar. Needless to remind, that election was won by the
Grand Alliance of RJD, JD(U) and Congress.

Four out of five legislators of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehand-ul-Muslimeen on June 29 crossed over to
join the Rashtriya Janata Dal making it the biggest party in the Bihar Assembly once again, pushing the
Bharatiya Janata Party to the second place. Thus with 80 seats against BJP’s 77, technically the main
opposition party in Bihar can stake the claim to form government in the future if any political
realignment takes place in the state.

At present this move is being interpreted as a shot in arm for the RJD and a big blow to the Asaduddin
Owaisi-led AIMIM. The latter might have carved out some votebank in the Seemanchal belt of north-east
Bihar , yet there is no dearth of people who consider the AIMIM as the B-team of the BJP.
With no election round the corner in Bihar it would not be easy to predict the ramifications the latest
development would have by the 2024 Lok Sabha or 2025 Assembly poll.

There was nothing surprising when this development finally took place. More than a year back Bihar
chief minister Nitish Kumar openly told Akhtar-ul-Iman on the floor of Assembly that four of his
party’s legislators are eager to join Janata Dal (United). The lone Lok Janshakti Party and Bahujan
Samaj Party legislators had crossed over to the Janata Dal (United) increasing its tally from 43 to 45.
Efforts were also on to engineer split in the 19-member Congress legislative party. But the JD(U)
failed in its attempt as the BJP had got alarmed. The saffron party prevailed on the state Congress
leadership as the joining of so many MLAs would have made the JD(U) much stronger in the House. The
BJP did not like this to happen.
Two-thirds of 19 MLAs, constitutionally required for split, comes to around 13. So if 13 MLAs of
Congress had then joined JD(U) the number of its legislators would have reached 58. This would have
made the bargaining position of Nitish’s party much more stronger in comparison with the BJP which won
74 seats in the last election.

The BJP was throughout this period planning to emerge as the largest party in Assembly in Bihar. There
was pressure on Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insan Party to merge with the saffron party. But the party
chief was resisting this attempt.
It had won four seats in the last Assembly election and like Hindustani Awam Morcha of former chief
minister Jitan Ram Manjhi a constituent of the National Democratic Alliance. After the return to power
of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh last March the saffron party wooed all the three VIP MLAs to its side—the
fourth had died a few months back. A furious Mukesh Sahni was left high and dry. It needs to be
mentioned that the Nishad Party in UP, like VIP in Bihar, is the party of fishermen and boatmen. It is
an alliance partner of the BJP there.

This move of the BJP increased the tally of the saffron party in Bihar Assembly to 77.
In the meantime the RJD won the Bochaha by-election from where the VIP MLA had earlier died. Now the
RJD’s number has increased to 76 MLAs. With four more joining the party on June 29 the number had
touched 80.

Apart from this, there are 16 Left parties and 19 Congress legislators. Thus the tally of the Grand
Alliance in Bihar is 115 in the House of 243.

The June 29 development came after months of speculation that the four AIMIM MLAs may switch side. As
Nitish had, of late, grown politically weak they thought that there is no point in joining the Janata
Dal (United).

Before this, the state AIMIM chief, Akhtar-ul-Iman, along with his trusted lieutenant, Engineer Aftab
Ahmed, met RJD supremo Lalu Prasad and leader of opposition Tejashwi Prasad Yadav in the last week of
May.

According to sources Akhtar had then pleaded before the father and son that it would not be good for
RJD to engineer split in AIMIM, whose five MLAs are already lending support to it. But Lalu and
Tejashwi were not impressed by their argument as they saw merit in RJD emerging as the biggest party in
the Bihar Assembly. Once again the BJP was trounced in its own game-plan.
Exactly a month later on June 29 all the four MLAs met Lalu at the same place, but now as RJD
legislators.

Chief minister Nitish Kumar, though an alliance partner of the BJP, may be very happy as he too wants
to clip the wings of the BJP in Bihar, especially after the latter’s frontal attack on him during the
heydays of Agnipath agitation. – INDIA NEWS STREAM