‘Operation Tiger’ gives Shinde greater leverage in MahaYuti, leaves Uddhav Sena reeling

Mumbai:The launch of “Operation Tiger” marks one of the most consequential shifts in Maharashtra’s political landscape since the 2022 rebellion led by Eknath Shinde that split the Shiv Sena.

By orchestrating the defection of six of the nine Lok Sabha MPs from the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) camp, Shinde claimed to have scored a political “sixer”, significantly strengthening his position within the state’s power structure.

However, the defection of six MPs has dealt a significant blow to the Shiv Sena (UBT), which is already struggling to keep its ranks united. The development undermines both the organisational strength and the political narrative of Uddhav Thackeray’s party, posing a serious challenge to its survival and influence.

All six defected MPs — Sanjay Jadhav, Bhausaheb Wakchaure, Sanjay Deshmukh, Nagesh Patil Ashtikar, Omraje Nimbalkar, and Sanjay Dina Patil — had won their seats in the 2024 general elections by defeating heavyweights from the MahaYuti alliance (BJP and Shinde Sena). Losing them essentially erases Uddhav Sena’s hard-fought electoral gains in the Lok Sabha, reducing their presence to a mere three MPs.

Since the 2022 rebellion, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has anchored its political narrative around the contrast between “gaddars” (traitors) and “imandaars” (loyalists). However, the latest exodus of the MPs suggests that this appeal to loyalty is gradually losing its hold in the face of political pragmatism and shifting power equations in Maharashtra.

Reacting to the defections, Deputy Chief Minister and Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde argued that the “gaddar” narrative has repeatedly failed to resonate with voters. He pointed out that since the 2022 split, his faction has emerged as the second-largest political force in the state in terms of legislative strength, expanded its organisational reach through civic and local body elections, and further consolidated its position in the recently concluded Legislative Council polls.

Statements by Omraje Nimbalkar highlighted a severe lack of development funds in the Opposition-held constituencies. This exposes a structural vulnerability in the Sena (UBT), as without access to state or central power, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Thackeray to keep his grassroots leadership economically and politically sustainable.

For Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Shinde, the successful operation delivers major strategic advantages. By consolidating a majority in both the state assembly (achieved in 2022) and now a dominant 13-MP block in the Lok Sabha, Shinde heavily solidifies his claim over the political legacy and ideology of Balasaheb Thackeray. This was even openly acknowledged by Home Minister Amit Shah during the recently held rally in Kolhapur district.

This boosts Shinde’s Lok Sabha strength from 7 to 13, putting his party on equal footing with the Congress as the state’s largest legislative group in the Lower House. This drastically improves his bargaining leverage within the Mahayuti against the BJP.

Shinde’s brand of politics relies heavily on operational secrecy and clinical execution. Pulling this off right at the start of the state legislature’s monsoon session shifts the psychological momentum entirely back to the ruling alliance. While ‘Operation Tiger’ is an outright tactical victory, the road ahead for the Shinde camp requires shifting from engineering defections to long-term institutional stability.

Shinde still faces the challenge of integrating these six newly joined MPs and their local networks with his existing party cadres. In many of these constituencies, Shinde’s loyalists were actively fighting against these rebel Sena UBT leaders in 2024. Resolving these localised friction points before 2029 will be delicate. However, Shinde, while welcoming the six rebel MPs on Monday, announced that they will contest on the bow and arrow symbol and will be elected in the 2029 general elections.

Having poached these leaders on the promise of fast-tracking development and funding, Shinde will have to immediately deploy state machinery to clear pending projects in regions like Dharashiv, Hingoli, and Yavatmal to prove that switching sides yields tangible benefits to voters.

For Uddhav Thackeray, the latest setback has pushed his party into a defensive position, making a strategic course correction imperative. As he remarked at a rally in Bhandup on Sunday, while senior leaders may switch sides, the party’s strength continues to rest with its grassroots Sainiks. Going forward, the Uddhav Sena is likely to intensify its outreach to the cadre and seek to reinforce its emotional appeal, portraying itself as an underdog battling the combined political and organisational might of its rivals at both the state and national levels.

The party will need to accelerate the promotion of a second line of committed leaders, including Aaditya Thackeray, Sanjay Raut, and Anil Desai, to fill the political void created in the affected Lok Sabha constituencies. Rebuilding the organisational network at the grassroots level and strengthening the party structure well ahead of upcoming local body and parliamentary elections will be crucial to its revival strategy.

While Eknath Shinde has pulled off a significant tactical victory, enhancing his influence both within the Mahayuti alliance and in New Delhi, the durability of this political realignment will depend on his ability to manage potential discontent at the grassroots level in the years leading up to the 2029 elections. For Uddhav Thackeray, the challenge ahead is formidable yet not unfamiliar. Having once again been cast in the role of the political underdog, his party’s future may hinge less on the leaders who have defected and more on whether its core cadre and grassroots Sainiks remain steadfastly loyal to the Thackeray legacy when Maharashtra returns to the polls.

IANS