2025 marks second straight year of above-normal rainfall: Experts

New Delhi: The just concluded Southwest Monsoon was ‘above-normal’ rainfall to the tune of 108 per cent of the long-period average. This is the second consecutive year in the last decade to record above normal rains, experts said on Friday.

In the past 10 years, from 2016, five years have registered above normal rainfall, two years recorded normal rainfall and three years witnessed below normal rainfall. Climate change has a critical role in driving the rainfall on the higher side, according to experts.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) classifies ‘normal’ rains when the actual monsoon is between 96-104 per cent of the long-period average, while rains over 104 per cent are classified as ‘above-normal’. However, increasing variability of rainfall continued to dominate the four-month-long season.

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country, 19 subdivisions recorded normal rainfall, constituting 46 per cent of the area of the country. Twelve subdivisions recorded excess rainfall covering 35 per cent of the area of the country, and two subdivisions saw large excess rainfall, constituting 10 per cent of the area.

Only three subdivisions witnessed deficient rainfall amounting to an area of nine per cent. Of India’s 727 districts, 328 recorded normal rainfall this season, 186 saw excess, and 67 reported large excess, while 134 faced a deficit and another 67 experienced severe shortfall.

According to meteorologists, the rainfall data over the years clearly shows that most of the rainfall is realised in the form of heavy rainfall. The data depicted below shows that most of the rainfall in the past 12 years has shown an upward trend.

“Monsoon seasons are not the same anymore. The last 10 years have recorded normal to above normal rainfall, with the latter being more prominent. Monsoon amplification and intensification are directly linked to global warming. Global warming has become the biggest driver of the monsoon now,” said K.J. Ramesh, former Director General with the IMD.

“The influence of El Niño and La Niña has been decreasing in the global warming era. The number of rainy days has decreased, but the quantum of rainfall has increased. Daily quantum of rainfall has undergone a significant change,” Ramesh added.

Mahesh Palawat, Vice President (Meteorology and Climate Change) with Skymet Weather, said the behavioural pattern of monsoon systems has changed drastically, altering rainfall patterns as well.

“We now see low-pressure areas spending more numbers of days than their average period over the land, and that too maintaining their strength. This is mainly because of the increased and continuous moisture feed over the land as well. Not just extreme rainfall events have increased, but there has also been a rise in cloudburst-like conditions as well. This was not the case earlier,” he explained.

IANS