BJP’s sets record-win in Gujarat, Congress bags Himachal

• With more than 150 seats falling in its kitty in Gujarat, the BJP has broken past record of Congress when it had won 149 seats nearly four decades ago
• Congress win in Himachal Pradesh over the BJP offers hope and confidence among the party leaders
• AAP may bask in the glory of success in its home turf Delhi where it managed to dislodge 15-year rule of BJP in the civic polls. The party managed to bag national party status in just 10 years.

The BJP made an impressive gain in Gujarat winning a record seventh straight term in the state. With more than 150 seats falling in its kitty, the BJP has broken past record of Congress when it had won 149 seats nearly four decades ago. For the BJP, massive victory in Gujarat is sufficient to lighten the mood of party workers and leaders who might have felt a setback following the defeat in Himachal Pradesh assembly elections and Delhi’s civic body polls.

The Congress has performed the worst in the state as it failed to capitalize on the gains it made in the last (2017) assembly polls. The party did not cross even 20-mark in the state where it has been the main opposition entity for at least three decades. Further, Congress does not have any local face in the state. However, its victory in Himachal Pradesh over the BJP offers hope and confidence among the party leaders. Notably, two Congress-ruled states, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are going to polls early next year.

In Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party has said to have made inroads but largely at Congress’s expense, implying that the Arvind Kejriwa’s soft Hindutva approach failed to make any dent in the BJP’s core constituencies. It is said the party made some gains in the Patidar and tribal constituencies. However, the party managed to bag national party status in just 10 years. On the other hand, the party’s performance in Himachal was not to its expectation. However, AAP may bask in the glory of success in its home turf Delhi where it managed to dislodge 15-year rule of BJP in the civic polls.

Himachal Pradesh results has come as a savior for the Congress after it crossed the majority mark of 35 out of total 82 assembly seats. Himachal Pradesh outgoing Chief Minister Jairam Thakur has conceded the defeat. However, it is not a surprise. No party has won back-to-back elections in the state in the last four decades. The BJP had won a majority with 44 seats in the 2017 Assembly election in the state, while the Congress had garnered 21 seats. While it is too early to pinpoint the exact reasons for the defeat of the BJP, but some of the issues that impacted the polls include old pension scheme, Agnipath, internal bickering in the BJP etc.

Broadly, there are four key factors behind the BJP’s glorious victory in Gujarat.

Modi’s invincibility

There are various factors that apparently contributed to the grand victory to the BJP.  Foremost among them is the aura of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Since it was a home turf of PM and any debacle here would have wide ramifications in 2024 general elections, PM invested all his efforts holding over 30 rallies after the elections were announced. It also showed that Modi’s appeal has not waned, at least, in Gujarat where he enjoyed the trust of his core constituents – Hindutva – as well as the upward mobility middle class despite unemployment and price rise. It seems Modi’s Hindutva combined with economic development remained intact.

Besides, Modi’s invincibility factor, the politics of Hindutva is dominant in the state. The Congress’s attempt to consolidate its erstwhile vote-banks KHAM (Khashtriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslims) no more strike chords with the concerned communities. Except Muslims, all went to the BJP.

Hindutva still dominant

The saffron party, this time again tried to bring opposition on the communal page to set poll narrative, but the latter avoided. Notably, Union Home Minister and another son of the soil Amit Shah raked up 2002 Gujarat riots issue, but no opposition leaders countered him knowing well they cannot afford to play on the pitch. Shah was criticized from several quarters including rights activist and former bureaucrat who sought Election Commission to act against the Union Home Minster for remarks on 2002 riots, but the Congress and the AAP avoided it.

Furthermore, the opposition even avoided raising the issue of Bilkis Bano case where murders and rapists got remission from the state government. While the issue of remission got international condemnation, for the people in Gujarat it did not matter.  BJP’s Payal Kukarani, the daughter of Manoj Kukrani – one of the 16 convicts in the Naroda Patiya riots case – won from Naroda constituency. Kukarni won by a margin of 83,513 votes.

Weak Opposition

There is no strong leadership of the Congress party in the state. The party lost two of its key leaders, Ahmed Patel and Madhavsinh Solanki who held influence. Besides, the party’s central leaders are busying doing countrywide march, Bharat Jodo Yatra. In absence of weak opposition, smaller parties also tried their luck independently, leading to distribution of non-BJP votes. The BJP found this time easier due to AAP’s aggressive foray in the state, making it a three-cornered contest. The Muslim votes, the core constituency of the Congress, this time gone to the Asaduddin Owai-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and the AAP. In many Muslim-dominated seats, the BJP appeared to be winning at the cost of the Congress. The BJP led in 12 of 17 seats with a high Muslim population compared to just five for the Congress. The AAP has failed to register in any victory of the 16 Muslim-concentrated constituencies it contested.

BJP’s robust organizational strength on ground  

Apart from the party’s booth-level management, the decades of rule in the state has made the atmosphere for the Rashtriya Sevak Sangh (RSS) conducive to increase its footprints far and wide. For example, RSS work among tribals has been unparalleled. The RSS and its affiliates work hard to bring voters to poll booths. Apart from tribal communities, the RSS has also been working hard among the so-called lower castes. Further, the BJP’s election machinery has been active round the clock. Fearing anti-incumbency, the party changed several chief ministers and sitting MLAs. The party has not only changed chief minister but also the entire cabinet to ensure greater representation of different communities.

– INDIA NEWS STREAM